Threats of evil AI: The threat to livelihood
In the 19th century, the Luddites, a secret organization of English textile workers, undertook the destruction of textile machinery. They were protesting against the emergence of textile factories that used machinery to offer cheaper products, thus driving many people out of business or employment. Today, the term ‘Luddite’ is a derogatory term describing anyone who opposes technology or automation.
This story of the Luddites repeats itself every time we witness a major industrial revolution. During the second industrial revolution, between the late 19th and early 20th century, there were major concerns about the loss of jobs.
But for some reason, despite the disruption, things always turned out well in the long-run. In the year 1900, 41 percent of the US workforce was employed in agriculture. By the year 2000, this share went down to 2 percent. Thanks to policies that delivered universal high-school education in the US, people moved to new occupations. That is not to say that the process was not disruptive to many. But it does suggest that human ingenuity often finds new ways to create new economic opportunities. No one in the year 1900 imagined that people of the future would be making a living as Internet Yoga instructors, YouTube celebrities, or ethical computer hackers. If you are interested in the economic principles behind these changes, I highly recommend MIT economist David Autor’s TED talk on the subject.
Will this trend continue for ever? Or is this time different? That is the Trillion dollar question that scientists from many disciplines are studying. One thing is clear: racing against the machines is a losing race. We need to race with the machines by combining our human creativity and brain power with the computational capabilities of AI. And if we do this right, we can usher ever greater economic productivity and human prosperity.
Alas, not everyone will be able to race with the machines. Adapting to new technologies often requires time and money. It is conceivable that many people will be left behind, with a world split into those who can race with the machine, and those who try to race against the machines but fail. Economists Daron Acemoglu and Pasquale Restrepo found that while low-skilled workers benefited from automation between 1960-1980, since the 1980s, it was high-skilled workers that benefited most, which is partly responsible for increasing inequality.
References
Autor, D. H. Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation †. J. Econ. Perspect. 29, 3–30 (2015).
Autor, D. Will automation take away all our jobs. TED. com (2016).
Frank, M. R. et al. Toward understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on labor. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 116, 6531–6539 (2019).
Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A. Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2011).
Acemoglu, D. & Restrepo, P. Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks. (2020) doi:10.3386/w26681.